Last night was good. Today could be great.

Two matches. Two wins. Three try scorer value plays landed. Cowboys, Brisbane, Shibasaki, Mam and Mariner — all found by the model before kickoff.

This afternoon is the most interesting game of the round.

Dragons vs Roosters — 4pm AEST
Market has written the Dragons off at $5.50 at home. Post Flanagan, post chaos, ANZAC Day. The model runs on data not sentiment. It still sees this as far more competitive than $5.50 implies — true odds closer to $3.16.
But if you think the market has overreacted to the coaching drama, the Dragons represent the biggest overlay on the board this round. +17.5 line is interesting and value in the try scorers. 👀

Good luck this afternoon.